Data
Exit Probability
Timely and reliable insights into a company’s
IPO and M&A probabilities within the next 2 years.
Overview
CB Insights Exit Probability is a proprietary machine learning algorithm that measures a private company’s chance of an IPO or M&A exit within the next 2 years.
With Exit Probability, you can quickly screen companies with IPO and M&A probability that best serve your strategies and get informed before your competitors. The probability score reduces the need for educated guesses and allows for more informed decision-making, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing strategic planning.
Exit Probability exists for 450,000+ private companies; the widest coverage in the industry.
How does Exit Probability work?
Exit Probability is computed daily and learns from 70+ data points associated with market and company data. Market data includes M&A and IPO rates per sector and many data points that impact market momentum. Company data includes but is not limited to valuation, funding, patents, acquisitions, management, and investor track records.
Exit Probability predictions are back tested with real historical data from companies that had actual exits; meaning probability scores are grounded in factual truths.
Exit Probability Signals surface important data points that impact a company’s score. Some Signals include:
- High M&A rate in sector
- High IPO rate in sector
- High number of patents
- CFO with IPO experience
- Investors with a strong track record of exits
- Recent funding
- High latest funding
- High valuation
Where can I find Exit Probability?
It can be found in (1) Company Profiles’ Outlook section, (2) Search under Outlook filter set, and (3) as a column in search results, similar to CB Insight’s other proprietary metrics.
Users can choose to see how a company’s Exit Probability has changed in the last 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years.
What companies have Exit Probabilities?
Exit Probability exists for 450,000+ private companies; the widest coverage in the industry.
Companies must satisfy below criteria to be eligible to have Exit Probability:
- Private & Alive
- Not a subsidiary of another company
- Not a Government entity
- Has active URL
Commercial Maturity, Mosaic Health, and Exit Probability, make up a company’s Outlook. Commercial Maturity represents past achievements, Mosaic Health represents the present state, and Exit Probability represents the future prospect of a company.
