Imagine: your personal AI agent notifies you that a hair dryer you’ve been eyeing is now on sale. The product page highlights benefits tailored to your curly hair, while the agent confirms it will arrive before your upcoming trip.

With your approval, the agent handles the purchase through your secure wallet. Later, it proactively suggests complementary hair care products for the summer season.

This world of autonomous commerce isn’t as far off as it seems. Tech and e-commerce leaders — including OpenAI, Nvidia, Amazon, Walmart, Google, and Apple — are already building AI systems that are steps away from conducting transactions. 

AI agents will impact each stage of the customer journey, streamlining the path to purchase and fundamentally transforming how businesses build relationships with consumers and drive loyalty.

We use CB Insights data on early-stage fundraising, public companies, and industry partnerships to analyze how generative AI — especially AI agents — is transforming the customer journey.

In the 11-page report, we cover 3 predictions that emerged from our analysis: 

1. First-party transaction data will shape the future of AI-driven personalization. As personalization becomes more sophisticated at the awareness and consideration stages, companies with direct access to first-party data will have an edge.
2. Direct-to-agent (D2A) commerce will kill traditional loyalty. With AI agents handling browsing and shopping, traditional loyalty programs will lose effectiveness as agents optimize shopping across a select group of merchants.
3. A few AI agents will own the customer relationship. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Apple — with critical distribution and financial services infrastructure — are well-positioned in commerce.

RELATED RESEARCH FROM CB INSIGHTS

• How generative AI could supercharge retailers’ ad networks
• AI is revitalizing the “virtual try-on” space — this is what’s coming next, including interactive Google ads
• The enterprise AI agents & copilots market map
• 15 tech trends to watch closely in 2025
• Generative AI — e-commerce search
• AI-optimized e-commerce UX
• Generative AI — customer support operations

For information on reprint rights or other inquiries, please contact reprints@cbinsights.com.

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Our 2025 Tech Trends report provides a concrete roadmap for corporate leaders to navigate some of the most important technology shifts in the year ahead.

We include specific recommendations for action so that business leaders can get ahead of the next wave of value creation.

Here is a selection of key findings from the report:

• AI agents are given money to spend: AI agents’ utility is limited until they can make transactions seamlessly. A small group of tech players is building new infrastructure to make that happen.
• The future data center arrives: With data center power usage expected to more than double by 2026, big tech companies are morphing into energy innovators to support AI workloads. There’s a huge opportunity in improving data centers’ energy efficiency.
• Investment floodgates open for RNA therapeutics: RNA therapeutics developers are pioneering new ways to treat traditionally “undruggable” diseases, with a growing focus on neurodegenerative disorders like Alzheimer’s and Huntington’s diseases.
• AI M&A fuels the next wave of corporate strategy: AI’s share of corporate tech M&A has doubled since 2020. Tech incumbents like Nvidia, Salesforce, and Snowflake, as well as consultancies like Accenture, are rapidly acquiring AI startups to tap into enterprise demand. 
• Disease management enters a new phase with AI: AI is improving care delivery across 3 key areas of disease management: precise symptom evaluation; testing/screening for earlier disease detection (including before symptoms even appear); and finding at-risk individuals in datasets of entire patient populations. 
• Retail’s personalization imperative: Generative AI is unlocking 1:1 experiences across commerce touchpoints, with leaders like Target seeing a corresponding 3x boost in conversation rates. Personalization will become omnipresent in retailers’ offerings.
• And much more

Methodology

Our analysis relies on a wide range of CB Insights datasets, including financing and acquisition data, valuations, founding team and key people data, earnings transcripts, and more. We also leverage CB Insights’ proprietary scoring algorithms to measure business health (Mosaic) and maturity (Commercial Maturity), as well as the likelihood of acquisition (M&A Probability score). Throughout the report, we provide CB Insights customers with jumping-off points to dig deeper into the data behind the report.

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Discussions of retail media networks (RMNs) and AI are picking up momentum among execs from retailers, agencies, and digital media companies: 

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It’s driving value in both customer-facing experiences and back-end operations. This includes tackling challenges specific to digital retail, like personalizing product merchandising and forecasting inventory needs. 

While customer service has been the dominant focus so far, more advanced use cases are on the horizon. These include multi-application orchestration through solutions like composable AI, which helps synchronize genAI tools across an organization’s e-commerce tech stack. 

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What you need to know:

• • Execs and investors are showing renewed interest in virtual fit tech, which saw a surge in interest a few years ago but hasn’t been adopted widely yet.
  • Other AI-powered styling tools, from automated stylist chatbots to generative AI outfit suggestions, have the potential to further deepen personalization and drive conversion with shoppers.

Virtual try-on tech was once touted as a silver bullet for fashion and beauty shopping.

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After nearly a decade of big tech companies venturing into launching their own financial products, the major players have now pulled back. Most have shifted to roles as tech providers, broadly supporting advances in financial infrastructure.

Amazon and Google stand out in this area:

• Amazon is embedding itself in more financial transactions via partnerships, investments, and acquisitions. It’s using these relationships to reach customers across more geographies and a wider range of services. 
• Google has shifted away from providing financial services and instead is connecting its existing platforms to others’ financial offerings. The company is also investing and partnering to enable digital-first financial tools.

We mined CB Insights data on Amazon’s and Google’s investments, acquisitions, and partnerships, as well as patents and earnings transcripts, from January 2021 to July 2024 to explore how the companies are reengineering their fintech strategies.

Download the full report to see where they are making moves.

This report uses CB Insights datasets like investments, acquisitions, business relationships, earnings call insights, patents, and more. Learn more about our data here.

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However, there’s one reason to be optimistic: early-stage activity. 

Among e-commerce enablement tech, early-stage funding has grown as a share of total funding, increasing from 17% in 2022 to 22% in 2023. Contrary to overall trends in venture, the average size of early-stage deals also increased slightly in 2023, to $6.7M, from $6.4M in 2022. 

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While the sportswear leader’s focus on direct sales channels helped it amass a sizable digital loyalty program, it wasn’t enough to compensate for the loss of third-party retail customers and the cost of running its own D2C business.

Now, the brand is developing cost-cutting plans, returning to e-commerce marketplaces, and working to grow its NikePlus loyalty program — where members spend significantly more than the average customer.

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Across 2023, retail tech fundraising followed the overall venture slowdown: retail tech startups grabbed $19B in equity funding — just a third of the 2022 total ($55B) and 84% lower than the peak in 2021 ($118B). Deals also declined in 2023, down 44% YoY to 2,339.

But as the year closed out, some quarterly indicators turned positive. For instance, retail tech saw 10 mega-rounds (deals worth $100M or more) in Q4’23 — up from 6 the prior quarter. M&A activity continued its upswing after hitting a recent low in Q2’23. And funding to store tech companies more than doubled quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q4’23.

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Consumer journeys have grown more complicated amid the rise of e-commerce, making options like BOPIS (buy online, pick-up in store) table stakes for any retailer looking to serve both in-store and online shoppers. To fulfill orders quickly and accurately, retailers must prioritize efficient distribution, inventory visibility, and last-mile flexibility. 

Striking this balance is especially crucial in grocery, where thin margins raise the stakes on profitability. A well-executed omnichannel fulfillment strategy can yield strong customer loyalty and repeat visits, while serving a wider customer base.

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The e-commerce giant has long had far-reaching financial ambitions, including introducing its own financial tools (e.g., credit cards, checking accounts, and lending) — not to mention its cashierless checkout tech for physical stores.

However, it has narrowed its focus in the past couple years, driven by a heightened need to find profitable and defensible pathways to growth.

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Stripe graduated from Y Combinator in 2010.

It’s been nearly 14 years and investors have plowed $9.4B into the company.

Stripe is now one of the most valuable payments companies.

But its recent valuation trend has been downward as can be seen below.

Shopify is a strategic partner of Stripe and also invested in 2021 (likely at or near the peak $95B valuation).

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However, VCs are still backing plenty of early-stage startups in the supply chain space as they chase after opportunities for innovation and disruptive products. This early-stage interest is particularly pronounced in areas related to task automation & visibility, likely driven by advances in AI and robotics.

To see where supply chain tech is heading in 2024, we looked at the tech markets with the most early-stage activity in 2023 by total early-stage funding and deal count: autonomous trucking systems, autonomous forklifts, drone delivery, warehouse scanning systems, and fleet management software.

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Historically, uptake of reusable packaging has been slow due to logistical complexities, affordability, and worries about customer adoption. However, consumers are also ready for a switch: A 2023 pilot study conducted by the WWF found that one-third of consumers opt for reusable packaging when given the option. 

It’s important to note that for reusable packaging to actually be sustainable, companies need to ensure its return and reuse. For instance, plastic reusable packaging typically needs to be used 50+ times before its environmental impact outperforms paper packaging.

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The post The reusable e-commerce packaging value chain market map appeared first on CB Insights Research.

Last valued at $10B in October 2021, it was the biggest and most valuable of the Amazon aggregators — companies that roll up (acquire and aim to grow) brands that sell on Amazon and other online marketplaces.

In total, per CB Insights, these aggregators have raised $15.3B in equity and debt, led by Thrasio’s $3.4B. 

Thrasio’s backers include top-tier players in the asset management/PE world such as:

• Advent International 
• BlackRock
• Silver Lake
• Oaktree Asset Management
• Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Funding boomed in 2021 and flatlined as the model came into question.

Once the Amazon aggregator play got hot, a mix of equity and debt providers piled in funding regional or Thrasio copycats.

Most of Thrasio’s comps are valued much lower.

The aggregators also leaned on debt to help them acquire new brands. Providers like Victory Park Capital, Blackrock, JPM Chase, and Truist are most exposed.

Capital is drying up for companies in the space amid slowing e-commerce growth. And even with economies of scale from several brands, it has proven difficult for aggregators to turn a profit. It remains to be seen if the remaining marketplace aggregator players can build a sustainable model. 

Other aggregators are eyeing consolidation. SellerX acquired aggregator Elevated Brands in May 2023, while Suma Brands merged with D1 Group in the same month.

And some players are diversifying away from Amazon — Forum Brands, for example, also acquires brands operating direct-to-consumer (D2C) or on digital marketplaces like Walmart. Meanwhile, OpenStore, co-founded by Keith Rabois, is buying Shopify stores.

Of course, Thrasio’s failure remains notable given its size. Bentiago, which filed for bankruptcy in August — just 2 years after raising $325M — suggests more aggregator failures may be on the horizon.

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As a result, success in the field has been varied: Walmart has made 10K+ drone deliveries with its partners, but Amazon’s Prime Air program, once the poster child for the technology, saw significant layoffs early in 2023. 

But the market has seen some promising activity in recent months.

In August, Walmart announced its fourth drone partnership: drones from Alphabet’s Wing will deliver orders from 2 Walmart stores in Dallas. 

That announcement came a few months after another Walmart drone partner, Zipline, raised a $330M Series F round, marking the biggest retail tech deal in Q2’23.

Largely driven by Zipline’s mega-round, drone delivery startups have raised $354M in 2023 so far. This marks a more than 4x increase from 2022.

So what’s going on? Is drone delivery ready to take off — or will there be a failure to launch? 

The answer remains mixed. 

Few drone operators have emerged as leaders. In our drone delivery ESP Ranking — which identifies and ranks leading companies in the landscape — only Zipline has separated itself from the pack. 

Zipline leads among drone delivery providers when it comes to valuations as well.

Notably, the company has grown through several successful proofs of concept. 

In 2016, it started with medical delivery in Rwanda and other markets in Africa with less regulatory pressure. Now, the company is expanding across verticals in the US, including grocery and meal delivery, via partnerships with major players like Walmart and Sweetgreen. 

But there’s still potential for other players in the market.

For instance, besides Zipline and Wing, Walmart has partnered with DroneUp and Flytrex.

When we look at the CB Insights drone delivery scorecard, both companies share a key highlight: full-service solutions that allow for broader tracking and management of deliveries and drones. 

The takeaway: in this nascent and heavily regulated market, customers are prioritizing execution and ease of use. Consistent pilots and partnerships as well as full-service operations are driving wins for the leaders. 

Dig into more metrics on this market — including employee headcount and valuations — using our drone delivery market report.

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Meanwhile, the pressure to adopt sustainable business practices is mounting with the rise of new legislation. For example, in the coming years, the EU is expected to require the implementation of digital product passports (DPP) across a number of categories, which will affect retailers in areas like apparel and consumer electronics. DPPs use QR codes and technologies like blockchain to trace individual products throughout the entire supply chain as well as post-purchase. These solutions can help ensure that products are sourced sustainably, and they can also be used to verify product authenticity for resale.   

To help retailers strengthen circular practices in order to keep up with evolving regulations and achieve their sustainability goals, tech vendors are developing a wide variety of solutions. These tools enable retailers to exercise sustainable production and transport, identify opportunities for repair, authenticate products and profit from resale, responsibly dispose of goods at the end of their lifespan, and more.

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Eighty-five percent of Gen Z says that social media influences their purchasing decisions, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, with TikTok and Instagram having the greatest impact. This can make it difficult for the fashion industry to keep up, as the fashion design process takes place up to a year in advance while social media trends may last a few weeks or even days. 

As a result, tech vendors are helping fashion brands reduce the time it takes to synthesize trends, design garments, and merchandise them for sale. Tools like trend identification and social listening solutions help brands analyze what is gaining traction on social media, generative AI enables them to quickly design new patterns and styles, and content editing and multi-purpose merchandising platforms allow them to quickly prepare new products for sale across online and offline channels. 

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LVMH’s strategic focus on targeting millennials and Gen Z — which are expected to account for 70% of luxury spending by 2025 — may be a key factor to its continued growth.

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However, big tech players like Google and Apple — which between them have billions of global users — have made moves to increase the privacy of their platforms by significantly limiting the usefulness of cookies to marketers.

Tech vendors are coming up with solutions to help digital marketers continue to deliver personalized campaigns at scale without third-party cookies. This means using techniques like device fingerprinting that track other signals of consumer behaviors and preferences, or else more precisely targeting audiences using strategies like referral marketing, location-based marketing, or social listening. 

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Across retail functions, generative AI — which covers AI technologies that generate entirely new content — could boost productivity in the retail and CPG industries by an estimated 1-2% of global revenues, amounting to $400B – $660B each year, per McKinsey. Cost reduction across departments could eventually make goods cheaper for consumers.

For now, many retail-specific generative AI solutions aim to improve digital shopping operations, engagement, and conversion. These include making 3D images for e-commerce product pages, writing personalized marketing emails at scale, and targeting search results and suggestions on e-commerce sites.

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